Find Early Federal Procurement Signals
# Find Early Federal Procurement Signals
## User Input
- **Target scope:** [Topic, capability, agency, GovTribe link, NAICS, PSC, or requirement area]
## Goal
Use GovTribe MCP tools to find early federal procurement signals across a market slice before they mature into fully active solicitations. Surface:
- Formal federal forecasts
- Early federal notices that function as demand signals
- Active federal solicitations that appear to belong to the same market slice
- Government-related news that corroborates or sharpens the procurement picture
## Required Input
The user must provide a target scope before analysis begins.
Accept any of the following:
- Topic, capability, or market lane
- Agency or customer
- NAICS or PSC
- GovTribe link to a related forecast or opportunity
- Plain-language description of the requirement area
Optional constraints the user may provide:
- Agency focus
- NAICS or PSC focus
Input rules:
- If the target scope is too vague to search well, ask for the minimum missing detail needed to proceed.
- Do not guess the target scope.
- Do not start substantive analysis until the target scope is resolved well enough to search.
## Workflow
### Steps
1. Call `Documentation` once with `article_names=["Search_Query_Guide", "Search_Mode_Guide", "Date_Filtering_Guide"]`.
- Use the documentation results to confirm valid tool names, `search_mode`, `query`, filter names, `fields_to_return`, and sort keys before searching.
2. If agency or classification resolution materially improves filtering, resolve and normalize the target scope.
- This workflow does not require a target company.
- Normalize topic or capability terms into a concise query set.
- Resolve agencies into `federal_agency_ids` when names are provided.
- Resolve NAICS into `naics_category_ids` when codes or labels are provided.
- Resolve PSC into `psc_category_ids` when codes or labels are provided.
- Translate the fixed 24-month lookback into:
- `estimated_solicitation_release_date_range` for forecasts
- `posted_date` for early-notice opportunity signals
- `posted_date` plus a future-facing `due_date_range` for active solicitations
3. Run the forecast pass first.
- Use `Search_Federal_Forecasts` as the first-class formal planning surface.
- Use the default search behavior for aggregation-first and filter-first passes.
- Aggregation-first pass:
- Use `per_page: 0`
- Use `aggregations` such as `top_federal_agencies_by_doc_count`, `top_set_aside_types_by_doc_count`, `top_naics_codes_by_doc_count`, and `top_contacts_by_doc_count`
- Use this pass to size the forecast slice, identify dominant agencies and set-aside posture, and narrow the row-retrieval pass when the cohort is broad
- Row-retrieval pass:
- Request `govtribe_id`, `govtribe_url`, `name`, `forecast_type`, `set_aside`, `estimated_solicitation_release_date`, `estimated_award_start_date`, `estimated_award_value`, `descriptions`, `updated_at`, `federal_agency`, and `points_of_contact`
- Use the tool’s documented field names exactly.
- Important detail:
- Use `estimated_solicitation_release_date_range` as the primary release-window filter for this radar
- The returned row field for award timing remains `estimated_award_start_date`
4. Run the early-notice pass second.
- Use `Search_Federal_Contract_Opportunities` as the early-notice surface.
- Default early-signal opportunity types:
- `Pre-Solicitation`
- `Special Notice`
- Start with the default search behavior.
- Use exact quoted identifiers where possible.
- For RFI, sources-sought, and market-research style asks, carry those terms in `query`.
- Do not assume there is a dedicated `RFI` opportunity-type enum. Use `Special Notice` plus query terms when needed.
- Keep the pass within the last 24 months using `posted_date`.
- Request:
- `govtribe_id`, `govtribe_url`, `name`, `solicitation_number`, `opportunity_type`, `set_aside_type`, `posted_date`, `due_date`, `descriptions`, `govtribe_ai_summary`, `federal_meta_opportunity_id`, `federal_contract_vehicle`, `federal_agency`, `naics_category`, `psc_category`, and `points_of_contact`
5. Run the active-solicitation pass third.
- Use `Search_Federal_Contract_Opportunities` again with `opportunity_types` set to `Solicitation`.
- Keep this pass within the same 24-month posted-date window.
- Use a future-facing `due_date_range` so only active solicitations remain.
- Start with the default search behavior.
- Request:
- `govtribe_id`, `govtribe_url`, `name`, `solicitation_number`, `opportunity_type`, `set_aside_type`, `posted_date`, `due_date`, `descriptions`, `govtribe_ai_summary`, `federal_meta_opportunity_id`, `federal_contract_vehicle`, `federal_agency`, `naics_category`, `psc_category`, and `points_of_contact`
6. Run the government-related news pass fourth.
- Use `Search_Government_Related_News_Articles`.
- Use `date_published` over the last 12 months.
- Start keyword-first using the normalized topic, agency, NAICS, PSC, and any concrete requirement terms surfaced by the forecast and opportunity passes.
- Request:
- `govtribe_id`, `govtribe_url`, `title`, `subheader`, `published_date`, `site_name`, and `body`
- Sort by `datePublished` descending for chronology-first review.
- Exclude articles that do not materially relate to the scoped procurement topic, customer, or requirement area.
- Treat news as corroborating context rather than stronger evidence than forecasts, notices, or solicitations.
7. Use one careful semantic follow-on only after the keyword/filter-first passes.
- Before a generic semantic pass, prefer one stage-progression recovery pass when one stage is strong and another stage is unexpectedly thin.
- If the forecast pass is strong but the early-notice or solicitation passes are thin, use `Search_Federal_Contract_Opportunities` with `similar_filter` from the strongest forecast and keep the strongest agency, NAICS, PSC, posted-date, due-date, and stage filters in place.
- If the early-notice or solicitation passes are strong but forecasts are thin, use `Search_Federal_Forecasts` with `similar_filter` from the strongest notice or solicitation and keep the strongest agency, NAICS, PSC, and release-window filters in place.
- Use this branch only to recover likely stage-adjacent procurement records and clarify progression.
- Do not use `similar_filter` in the government-related news branch.
- Only if the stage-progression branch is still too thin should you use a generic semantic pass.
- Use `search_mode: "semantic"` on forecasts, opportunities, or government-related news only when the topic is conceptual or synonym-heavy.
- Keep the strongest structural filters in place.
- Use `_score` sorting for semantic passes.
- Do not let semantic broadening replace stage-based filtering.
- Do not let semantic news hits outweigh stronger procurement evidence.
8. Merge, dedupe, and stage the procurement signals.
- Forecast records stay in the `Forecast` bucket.
- Opportunity rows are mapped into `Pre-Solicitation` or `Special Notice / RFI / Sources Sought`.
- `Solicitation` rows go into `Active Solicitation`.
- News rows stay in the `Government-Related News` bucket.
- Collapse obvious duplicates by agency, title, timing, and scope similarity.
- If a formal forecast and an early notice appear to describe the same requirement, keep both and explain the progression.
- If a formal forecast, early notice, and active solicitation appear to describe the same requirement, keep the stage progression explicit.
- If a news article materially corroborates a forecast, early notice, or solicitation, keep both and explain the connection.
9. Use optional historical validation only when it sharpens the procurement signal set.
- If the user asks whether a signal looks like a recompete or wants historical confirmation, use `Search_Federal_Contract_Awards`.
- Validate through agency, NAICS, PSC, vehicle, and date context.
- Use this only to sharpen the procurement signal set, not to turn the workflow into `Find Federal Recompete Opportunities`.
10. Rank and verify the remaining signals before finalizing the answer.
- Use the signal labels and scoring factors in `## Output Format`.
- Prefer records with concrete stage clarity, timing, scope specificity, agency clarity, and evidence of progression from forecast to notice to solicitation when applicable.
- Use news to sharpen context, timing, or market relevance, but keep procurement records primary.
- Remove weak signals before finalizing the procurement signal set.
- If the evidence is sparse, conflicting, or mostly weak, say so clearly instead of forcing a confident radar.
- Include timing outlook and next-step logic when the evidence supports it.
## Output Format
Use these signal labels:
- `High Signal`
- `Medium Signal`
- `Watch`
- `Weak`
- `Exclude`
Score each surfaced item using:
- Stage maturity
- Release timing
- Specificity of scope
- Agency clarity
- Set-aside clarity
- Classification clarity
- Presence of points of contact
- Evidence of progression from forecast to notice to solicitation
Return the answer in this order:
1. **Target Scope Summary**
- Briefly summarize how the topic, agency, codes, and fixed 24-month window were interpreted
2. **Search Approach**
- Briefly explain how the forecast pass, early-notice pass, active-solicitation pass, and government-related news pass were used
- Briefly note any filters, time windows, or stage-scope decisions applied
3. **Forecast Signals**
- List the strongest formal forecast signals
4. **Early Notice Signals**
- List the strongest early-notice signals
5. **Active Solicitation Signals**
- List the strongest active solicitation signals
6. **Government-Related News Signals**
- List the strongest relevant recent articles that sharpen or corroborate the procurement picture
- If no relevant recent news is found, say so clearly
7. **Procurement Signal Summary and Timing Outlook**
- Summarize which signals look strongest and what stage progression appears most likely
8. **Risks, Gaps, or Unknowns**
- Briefly note sparse signal coverage, ambiguity, thin evidence, or timing uncertainty
9. **Overall Confidence**
- State overall confidence and why
- Keep procurement evidence primary and treat news as corroborating context
## Citation Rules
- Only cite sources retrieved in the current workflow.
- Never fabricate citations, URLs, IDs, or quote spans.
- Use exactly the citation format required by the host application.
- Attach citations to the specific claims they support, not only at the end.
## Grounding Rules
- Base claims only on provided context or GovTribe MCP tool outputs.
- If sources conflict, state the conflict explicitly and attribute each side.
- If the context is insufficient or irrelevant, narrow the answer or state that the goal cannot be fully completed from the available evidence.
- If a statement is an inference rather than a directly supported fact, label it as an inference.Last updated
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